Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 4Q19 Update

Published: 22 January 2020

ID: G00386835

Analyst(s): Ranjit Atwal , Annette Jump , Roberta Cozza , Tuong Nguyen , Bruno Lakehal , Mikako Kitagawa , Annette Zimmermann , CK Lu , Tracy Tsai


The devices market will reach 2.1 billion units by 2023, shrinking at more than a 1.0% CAGR. The end of the Windows 10 upgrade cycle will depress professional PC growth through 2023, while the mobile phones outlook will depend on the connectivity to 5G to boost replacements in 2020 and beyond.

Table Of Contents
  • Forecast Assumptions
  • Market Impacts
  • Notable Changes

Forecast Data Summary

Forecast Model Summary

Influencing Factors and Assumptions

  • Influencing Factor: Phone Technology Roadmaps
    • Forecast Assumption: The Share of 5G-Capable Phones Will Move From 12% in 2020 to 56% by 2023.
  • Influencing Factor: Replacements of PCs
    • Forecast Assumption: Through 2020, 80% of All PCs Will Have Migrated to Windows 10.
    • Professional PC Lifetimes to Only Increase by 3% From 2020 Through 2023

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