Gartner Research

Gartnerのハイプ・サイクルを理解する

Published: 21 June 2023

Summary

Gartnerのハイプ・サイクルは、登場からメインストリームに至るイノベーションの成熟度、妥当性、採用率を図示したものである。CIOとITリーダーは、ハイプ・サイクルと関連する重要度マトリクスを用いて適切なイノベーションへ適時に投資するための戦略的ロードマップの策定に、本リサーチノートを参照されたい。

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要約

主要な所見
  • ハイプ・サイクルは、テクノロジ分野、水平/垂直ビジネス市場など、特定のセグメントにおける、相対的な市場の拡大、成熟度、イノベーションの貢献度を定点観測的に提示するものである。

  • ほとんどのイノベーション (すなわちテクノロジ、サービス、管理技法など) は、過度な期待から幻滅、それに続く主流の採用、生産性の安定という一定のパターンを経て進化する。

  • ハイプ・サイクルと重要度マトリクスは、戦略や計画の立案者が、観測される価値、ビジネス・メリット、採用速度、将来的な方向性に基づいて、イノベーションを評価する上で役立つ。

推奨事項

テクノロジ投資を担当するCIOとITリーダーは、以下を行う。

  • Gartnerのハイプ・サイクルを、自社のテクノロジ・ロードマップを策定する際の主要なインプットの1つとして活用する。こうした知見と具体的なベンダー・リストを、自社の投資ポートフォリオの戦略的分析の出発点として活用する。

  • 状況に応じた採用、浸透度、成熟度を確保するために、コンテキスト版のハイプ・サイクルを活用して、さまざまなイノベーションに関する業界固有の観点を詳細に掘り下げる。

  • 自社のリスク許容度、スピードや予算のニーズに応じて、社会経済、地域、業界に固有の要因を管理できるよう支援する戦略を策定し、変更に備える計画を立てる。

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Analysts:

Hideaki Horiuchi

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