Is OpenAI’s head start in Generative AI akin to Apple’s lead with iOS over Android? Or will this head start be negated as Generative AI will be commoditized like Cloud is today?
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There are clearly first-mover advantages but overtime companies like Amazon, Google, et. al. will have strong offerings. I see parity occurring overtime with niche use cases for specific applications becoming the norm.
OpenAI has a first mover advantage but it remains to be seen on how well this will translate to the greater market given the amount of money in play from others with similar capabilities.
It reminds me of the early days of the cloud when AWS had a clear advantage as the first mover but in the early days was unreliable. Given the non-existent service levels of OpenAI, taking an AI-agnostic strategy will be critical to a robust solution. I can also see SaaS providers giving customers a choice of which AI engine to use. This will also help mitigate the known biases.
It is a head start only in the first mover sense. On-par competitors, including open source versions and far more efficient models running on much lower hardware will be available within months, and within 12 months I would expect better performing models from other companies tuned to particular purposes.
Unsure what 'lead' you refer to with iOS, iOS has a ~30% market share, Android has ~68%.
OpenAI does have the first mover advantage and the dominant market share. ChatGPT consistently performs better in evaluation than Bing chat, which consistently outperforms Bard (for now)
My prediction is that MS Copilot(s) will fundamentally change productivity, and will overtake chatgpt and remain the lead for some time