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| Gartner Dataquest Says Tablet PC Shipments Will Account for 1 Percent of All Notebook Shipments for 2003 |
| Tablet PCs to Have Some Success in Vertical Markets, Not Mainstream Business |
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STAMFORD, Conn., November 6, 2002 - Despite much publicity and market promotion, the Tablet PC is not expected to result in a high rate of early adoption. In 2003, Tablet PC shipments are projected to reach 425,000 units, representing 1.2 percent of worldwide notebook shipments, according to Dataquest Inc, a unit of Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT and ITB).
"Tablet PCs will have a natural fit in many vertical applications that currently use pen-based tablets," said Ken Dulaney, vice president and research area director for Gartner. "However, a lack of application support, clumsy hardware designs and a price premium will be barriers for most users." The majority of early purchases are expected to be made by businesses, especially within vertical industries, buying in lots of one to 10 for evaluation purposes. Consumers and business executives looking for the latest new gadget on the market will also make up a majority of early shipments. "Initial interest could cause an early spike in purchasing that will eventually level out," said Leslie Fiering, vice president for Gartner Dataquest. "Outside of the vertical industries, only the bravest will implement Tablet PCs widely toward the end of 2003." Gartner Dataquest expects a six- to nine-month evaluation period before any volume purchases are made, even within vertical industries. More than 20 PC hardware vendors will be releasing new Tablet PCs within the next year. These Tablet PCs include a new data type, ink and capture handwriting or drawings via pen input. Gartner analysts said the Tablet PC is first and foremost a software evolution that extends the Windows operating environment and Microsoft applications to support a variety of media types (ink, voice, video) and input methods (pen, speech, onscreen keyboard). "While it is true that hardware has to change to make the Tablet PC ergonomically feasible to access the newest media type and ink, it is the strength of users' desire to use the new software that will largely determine the extent and speed of the change of the hardware," Fiering said. Despite the slow start, Tablet PC adoption is expected to ramp up, so that by 2007 at least 35 percent of all notebooks sold will have screen digitizers with a convertible or separable keyboard design. Additional information is available in the Gartner Dataquest Perspective "Tablet PC Is Coming, But Slowly." This document examines the likely adoption scenario for the Tablet PC and its extensions to the Microsoft Windows operating system. This research is published by Gartner Dataquest's Computing Platforms research cluster. This cluster is designed to help companies focus on opportunity, with coverage of the complete range of computer hardware platforms as well as associated supply chain components, systems, distribution channels and end-user groups. For more information on how to subscribe to this program, please call 408-468-8000. Reports can be accessed on the Internet at www.gartner.com. Gartner Dataquest is the leader in providing the high-technology and financial communities with market intelligence for the semiconductor, computer systems and peripherals, communications, document management, software, and services sectors of the information technology industry. About Gartner |
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Contact: Allison Haines Gartner +1 203 316 6216 allison.haines@gartner.com |
