Press Release

Egham, UK, September 23, 2015 View All Press Releases

Gartner Says Replacement Indecision Will Cause Device Shipments to Decline 1 Percent in 2015

Forty-Four Percent of Current Tablet Users Are Planning for Alternative Options

Worldwide combined shipments of devices (PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones) are expected to reach 2.4 billion units in 2015, a 1 percent decline from 2014 and down from the previous quarter's forecast of 1.5 percent growth, according to Gartner, Inc. (see Table 1). 

"Replacement activity across all types of devices has decreased," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. "Users are extending the lifetime of their devices, or deciding not to replace their devices at all." 

Gartner's latest device forecast also showed that shipments in all categories will contract in 2015, except for mobile phone shipments, which are on pace to increase 1.4 percent in 2015. Smartphone shipments are estimated to increase 14 percent in 2015. Emerging Asia/Pacific, including India and Indonesia, is on pace to show the strongest growth (43 percent) in 2015, while Greater China will grow 3 percent. 

"By 2017, we estimate mobile phone shipments will reach the 2 billion mark, and smartphones will represent 89 percent of the market," said Annette Zimmermann, research director at Gartner. 

Table 1

Worldwide Devices Shipments by Device Type, 2014-2017 (Millions of Units)

Device Type

2014

2015

2016

2017

Traditional PCs (Desk-Based and Notebook)

277

247

234

226

Ultramobiles (Premium)

37

44

57

78

PC Market

314

291

291

303

Ultramobiles (Tablets and Clamshells)

226

199

208

218

Computing Devices Market

540

490

499

521

Mobile Phones

1,879

1,905

1,960

2,000

Total Devices Market

2,419

2,395

2,459

2,521

Note: The Ultramobile (Premium) category includes devices such as Microsoft's Windows 8 Intel x86 products and Apple's MacBook Air.

The Ultramobile (Tablets and Clamshells) category includes devices such as, iPad, iPad mini, Samsung Galaxy Tab S 10.5, Nexus 7 and Acer Iconia Tab 8.

Ultramobiles — All Ultramobile Basic and Utility Devices.

Source: Gartner (September 2015) 

The global PC shipment market is expected to total 291 million units in 2015, a decline of 7.3 percent year over year, and to show flat growth in 2016. 

"Until the end of 2015, currency devaluation and subsequent price increases will continue to restrain the replacement of ultramobiles premium and notebooks by businesses in particular," said Mr. Atwal. "In 2016, we expect currency impacts will negate and while Windows 10 products on the Intel Skylake platform will increase in volumes throughout the year, Windows 10 adoption among businesses will ramp sharply in 2017, where we expect the PC market to return to a 4 percent growth." 

The ultramobile segment (tablets and clamshells) is also on pace to contract in 2015. Ultramobile shipments are estimated to total 199 million units in 2015, a decline of 12 percent year over year. Tablet shipments are on pace to reach 192 million units in 2015, down 13 percent from 2014. 

"The tablet market is coming under increasing pressure," said Ms. Zimmermann. "Users of tablets with a screen size between 7 and 8 inches are increasingly not replacing their devices." In addition, Gartner's new user survey conducted in June 2015 across six countries* found that 44 percent of current tablet users are planning to substitute their tablets with a different device. It is potentially even higher for laptop users, as 54 percent of them are intending to opt for an alternative device, including the highest percentage of undecided consumers (see Table 2). 

Table 2

Buyers’ Substitution Plans 

 

Desktop

Standard
laptop

Convertible laptop (screen does not detach from main unit)

Convertible laptop (screen detaches from main unit)

Tablet

Smartphone

Phablet

Not sure/
Haven't
decided

Desktop
(n = 3,393)

65%

12%

6%

4%

2%

   

11%

Laptop (standard or convertible)
(n = 3,798)

7%

46%

13%

12%

4%

   

19%

Tablet
(n = 1,924)

2%

6%

6%

7%

56%

4%

6%

13%

Smartphone
(n = 6,851)

   

2%

 

2%

66%

14%

16%

 

Replacement with same type of device

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Gartner (September 2015)

 More information is available to Gartner clients in the reports “Forecast: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2012-2019, 3Q15 Update” and “Survey Analysis: Android, Windows, or iOS, It Is All About the Form Factor.” 

*For Editors:

The survey was conducted online in May and June 2015. A total of 19,000 consumers were asked about their technology usage and attitudes from the U.S., U.K., France, China, Brazil, and India.

Gartner analysts will further discuss the future of mobility during Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2015, November 8-12 in Barcelona, Spain. Additional information from the event will be shared on Twitter at http://twitter.com/Gartner_inc and using #GartnerSYM. 

Upcoming dates and locations for Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2015 include:

September 28-30, Cape Town, South Africa

October 4-8, Orlando, Florida

October 19-22, Sao Paulo, Brazil

October 26 - 29, Gold Coast, Australia

October 28-30, Tokyo, Japan

November 2 -5, Goa, India

November 8 - 12, Barcelona, Spain 

About Gartner Symposium/ITxpo

Gartner Symposium/ITxpo is the world's most important gathering of CIOs and other senior IT executives. This event delivers independent and objective content with the authority of the world's leading IT research and advisory organization, and provides access to the latest solutions from key technology providers. Gartner's annual Symposium/ITxpo events are key components of attendees' annual planning efforts. IT executives rely on these events to gain insight into how their organizations can use IT to overcome business challenges and improve operational efficiency.

Contacts
About Gartner

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