1Q05: Semiconductor, Hardware and Systems Forecast Scenarios

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The latest slowdown in the semiconductor market is starting to bite, and the most likely outcome is single-digit growth for chip revenue in 2005 and 2006. The same will be true of almost all computing platform segments.

	Opportunities and Risks Equally Weighted in 1Q05 Economic Scenarios Economic risks and opportunities will be more evenly balanced as global gross domestic product growth returns to its long-term trend during the coming 12 months. An economic slowdown in the United States and China is less likely now than the previous forecast.		1Q05 Update: Global PC Forecast Scenarios, 2005-2006 Slowing replacement activity will reduce shipment growth during 2005 and 2006. Global PC shipments will grow 9 percent in 2005 and 6.7 percent in 2006. These numbers are little changed from those forecast in the fourth quarter of 2004. Downside market risks and upside market potential are balanced.
	1Q05 Update: Global Server Forecast Scenarios, 2004-2006 Worldwide server revenue growth will most likely remain in the low single digits this year and in 2006. Revenue will reach $51 billion in 2005 and exceed $52 billion in 2006.		1Q05 Update: Global Hard Disk Drive Forecast, 2002-2006 Based on the extraordinary 2004 growth in new consumer markets, global hard disk drive revenue will exceed $25 billion in 2005 and 2006.
	1Q05 Update: PDA Forecast Scenarios, 2004-2006 Growth in Research in Motion BlackBerry and Pocket PC shipments will more than offset declines in shipments of PDAs based on other operating systems. Worldwide PDA shipments will reach 12.9 million in 2005 but ease to 12.7 million in 2006.		1Q05 Update: Global RAID Disk Storage Forecast, 2004-2007 Technology advancements, storage consolidation, aggressive vendor pricing and moderately improving global economies will hold revenue growth for redundant array of independent disks storage to low-single digit growth.
	1Q05 Update: Data Processing Semiconductor Forecast, 2004-2006 Publicly traded data processing semiconductor suppliers reveal that they trailed projections made in the fourth quarter of 2004. Although sequential growth will occur in the first quarter, the forecast for the most likely case has been reduced for the remainder of 2005.		DRAM Forecast, 1Q05: Downturn in 2006 Won't Be Catastrophic The predicted recession in the dynamic random-access memory market in 2006 won't be like the crash of 2001. It will be a more traditional decline, and the industry even looks set for growth in 2007 and 2008.
	Semiconductor Capital and Equipment Spending Scenarios: 1Q05 Update Capital spending surged in 2004, but excess inventories and slower device demand will lead to a correction in 2005. The industry faces another downcycle, but it will not be as severe as the previous one.		1Q05 Update: Wired Communications Semiconductor Forecast Preliminary wired communications semiconductor revenue growth was 18.9 percent in 2004. The forecast is reduced, noting that a 1.4 percent decline is the most likely scenario for 2005. Growth of 2.9 percent is projected for 2006.
	1Q05 Global Forecast: EDA Market Remains in Electronic System-Level Tool Limbo The electronic design automation market is in a product-constrained mode, waiting for the electronic system-level toolset to solidify. Market growth will remain depressed until users have a new generation of tools and methodologies in which to invest.