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8 - 10 April 2002
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Florence, Italy
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Grab The Future
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Mark Raskino, Research Director, Gartner | | |
Tuesday 9 April 2002
The storm clouds over business IT are clearing and an end to the 'Gap Year' is in sight, according to Mark Raskino, research director at Gartner. Speaking at Symposium/ITxpo in Florence, Italy today, he said the outlook will remain mixed until 2004.
Raskino introduced the concept of the Gap Year at Symposium/ITxpo in Cannes in November 2001, then advising chief information officers (CIOs) to use this current period of slow growth to pause for breath and "tidy up" after the e-business whirlwind.
Six months after Cannes, Raskino predicts that the Gap Year will end in six months. "Enterprise IT investment growth will rise in 2003, but those who wake up in January hoping to see a spectacular return to IT exuberance will be very disappointed.
"We expect a long, drawn-out period of consolidation to continue throughout 2002 and 2003," Raskino continued. "In fact, 50 percent of IT companies that have a household brand name won't exist in their current form by 2004. Enterprises delaying decisions because of market consolidation, such as waiting for the outcome of the HP and Compaq merger, will conspire to make 2003 a gradual ramping up, rather than a rapid return to IT investment growth."
As for the future, Raskino highlights a grey category of technologies such as Bluetooth, 3G and Web services that have neither failed or succeeded. "There isn't one single hot technology to watch out for in the future, but watch this group carefully, he said. "As we ramp out of the Gap Year, don't fall into the trap of dismissing technologies that, when mature, will offer significant opportunities to your enterprise, and your competitors!"
By Andrew Spender, Gartner
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