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| GartnerG2 Forecasts Worldwide Online Holiday Sales to Surpass $25 Billion this Year | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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San Jose, Calif., October 22, 2001 - Despite difficult economic conditions and the events of September 11, worldwide online holiday shopping sales are projected to reach $25.3 billion this year, a 39 percent increase over last year, according to GartnerG2, a research unit of Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT and ITB).
"The increase in online holiday shopping sales will be driven by increases in online users, buyers, and most importantly, the experience level of online buyers, which our research indicates is the single most important predictor of online spending," said Mike Cruz, senior analyst for GartnerG2. In North America, economic uncertainty will slow some of the potential for growth. GartnerG2 research presently shows the events of September 11 will have a minor impact on planned spending. From September 26 to October 7 GartnerG2 surveyed 16,449 U.S. respondents to gauge how inclined they are to shop online this holiday season. Of those who shopped online last year, 80.5 percent said they are inclined to shop at the same rate online this year, 13.6 percent said they'll spend less online this holiday season and 6 percent said they'll spend more. Fifty-three percent of online holiday sales, or $13.4 billion, will be made outside of North America compared to 50 percent last year (see Table 1). While North America will continue to lead all regions in online holiday sales, the other regions are showing stronger growth rates. Table 1 Worldwide Internet Retailing Sales Forecast Estimate for Fourth Quarter 2001 (Billions of U.S. Dollars)
Source: Gartner Dataquest (October 2001) As of mid-2001, more than 71 million U.S. adults had made an online purchase within a three-month period, a 23 percent increase from the previous year. As Web sites have increased the functionality and ease of use on their sites, GartnerG2 analysts said consumers are coming back to buy more online. "In 1999, many consumers were disappointed with the operational and customer service performance of online vendors. The result was that over half of those who bought gifts online in 1999 stayed away from holiday buying online in 2000," said David Schehr, research director for GartnerG2. "Satisfaction was much higher in 2000, with three-quarters of buyers saying they were very satisfied with their experience. This means there will be less attrition from those who bought online last year, and those returning this year are likely to increase their spending levels." Growth in Web users has been paralleled by growth in the number of e-tailers. In Europe, there has been a rapid increase in brick and clicks retailers coming online and improving their proposition in 2001. In Asia/Pacific, local retailers in early Web adopter markets (Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) have begun to develop multichannel sales and marketing models, including some direct selling of products and services on the Internet. "In Europe, e-tailers continue to improve their Web site functionality by offering stock checking, order tracking and keeping their customers informed by e-mail," said Gill Mander, business analyst for GartnerG2 Europe. "More flexible delivery times and new delivery methods are also encouraging customers to buy online." "Similarly, in Asia/Pacific, retail banks, card companies and domestic consumer portals are increasingly active in promoting and fostering Web consumption through site certification and extended customer loyalty programs," said Lane Leskela, research director for GartnerG2 Asia/Pacific. "Consumers here are also drawn by the availability of specialty items on the Web that are in low supply in the buyers' local markets. The fourth quarter has also increasingly become a holiday shopping season in Asia/Pacific. Christmas has penetrated the local culture of many non-Christian societies in the region as a family and friends gift giving celebration." GartnerG2 is a new research service from Gartner that helps business strategists guide and grow their businesses. For more information, visit www.gartnerg2.com. Gartner, Inc. is a research and advisory firm that helps more than 10,000 clients understand technology and drive business growth. Gartner's divisions consist of Gartner Research, Gartner Consulting, Gartner Measurement and Gartner Events. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in Stamford, Conn., and has 4,600 associates, including 1,400 research analysts and consultants, in more than 80 locations worldwide. The company achieved fiscal 2000 revenues of $855 million. For more information, visit www.gartner.com. |
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Contact: Andy Silver Middleberg Euro RSCG 212-699-2589 andrews@middleberg.com |
Contact: Tom McCall Gartner, Inc. 408-468-8312 tom.mccall@gartner.com |
