|
|
| The Mobile Opportunity is Still Alive - But Operators Must be Prepared to Lose Control to Exploit It |
| Gartner Lists Top Five Recommendations for Mobile Operators |
|
Cannes, France, November 6,2001 - Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT and ITB) today said that despite current turmoil in the telecom industry caused by 3G license debts, job cuts and depressed share prices, the mobile opportunity is still 'there for the taking'. Speaking at its annual European Symposium ITxpo event in Cannes this week, analysts said the mass availability of affordable mobile devices is creating an 'always on' generation, where by 2007, 75 percent of people in Europe will spend 80 percent of their non-working time in close proximity to e-services that can assist making virtually every personal decision.
Analysts said while the impact of the 'always on generation' on a number of industries and processes is set to be bigger than that of the Internet, one question remains - are the mobile operators able to realise the opportunity? Analysts said they are, but only if they change dramatically. Gartner predicts that the compound annual growth rate in mobile voice services will become negative by 2004, while expected revenues from data based services will be $47 billion by the end of 2005. The winning operators will be those that evolve from voice centric technology providers to lifestyle oriented service providers. 2001 - The Year That Operators Would Rather Forget. 2001 has been a tough year. GPRS services failed to become a commercial reality and in many countries will not be available until early 2002. Many UMTS license winners realised they had paid too much, and that plans to launch 3G services in 2002 were over-ambitious. WAP failed to live up to expectations. One of the few success stories has been SMS, with 23 billion messages sent worldwide each month. Future operator success depends on developing a value proposition strong enough to convince users to change their existing phones twice - first to GPRS and then to UMTS. Operators must not only transition from voice to data, but must become channels for the "lifestyle services" that will be expected by the always on generation. This will require a major mindset change. Nigel Deighton, Vice President Gartner, said "European mobile operators have made the mistake of focusing on the technology necessary to deliver new services at the expense of how to make money from them and are currently in catch-up mode." Transition from Voice to Life Style According to Gartner, three key factors that initially drove the explosion in mobile phones were Ubiquity, Usability and Utility. The success of 2.5 and 3G and the transition from voice to data/lifestyle services is dependent on the addition of a fourth "U" - Uniqueness. This is the ability for applications and services to adapt to and treat each user as an individual, based upon location, time, identity, preferences, profiles and even what role a user is playing. There are no killer mobile applications because users' needs are very diverse. Nick Jones, Vice President, Infrastructure and Application Development said, "It's not the job of operators to develop unique mobile services, or even to decide what is good or bad. They must create an open ecosystem which makes it easy for partners to develop and profit from new services, where a Darwinian evolution of mobile services can take place." Jones added: "The successful mobile operators of the future will be team players who can work with partners, rather than control freaks living in walled gardens". The way forward Today, the first priority is survival. In the longer term, operators must create open and accessible business and technical infrastructures, which allow them to profit from the success of partners. Failure to do so will condemn the industry to a continuing downward spiral of high debt and decreasing margins. Gartner's top five recommendations for mobile operators and users are:
Gartner Symposium/ITxpo is the IT industry's largest and most strategic conference, providing business leaders with a look today at the future of IT. For more than 10,000 IT professionals from the world's leading enterprises, Gartner's annual Symposium/ITxpo events are key components of their annual planning efforts, and a place to gain insights into how their organisations can use technology to address business challenges and improve operational efficiency. About Gartner, Inc. Gartner, Inc. is a research and advisory firm that helps more than 11,000 clients understand technology and drive business growth. Gartner's divisions consist of Gartner Research, Gartner Consulting, Gartner Measurement and Gartner Events. Founded in 1979, Gartner, Inc. is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut and consists of 4,300 associates, including 1,200 research analysts and consultants, in more than 90 locations worldwide. The company achieved fiscal 2001 revenues of $952 million. For more information, visit www.gartner.com. |
|
Contact: Laurence Goasduf Gartner + 44 1784 267-195 laurence.goasduf@gartner.com |
