Gartner Says PC Industry Growth to be Driven by Replacement Purchases in 2004
Nearly 100 Million PCs to be Replaced this Year
STAMFORD, Conn., May 20, 2004 — Replacement purchases will drive worldwide PC shipments to 186.4 million units in 2004, a 13.6 percent increase from 2003, according to a preliminary second quarter forecast by Gartner, Inc.
Gartner analysts expect almost 100 million PCs to be replaced in 2004 and nearly 120 million more to be replaced in 2005. The volume of replacements this year and next year will surpass the number of systems replaced in the run-up to Y2K in 1998 and 1999.
"Our first quarter results suggest the Y2K replacement cycle that vendors have been anticipating for more than a year is under way," said George Shiffler, principal analyst for Gartner's client platforms research. "More than 30 percent of installed PCs are now at least three years old. Many, if not most of these PCs, are using older Windows operating systems (OS) that are no longer supported or are about to lose full technical support. Expiring OS support will play a significant role in driving PC replacements going forward."
Healthy global economic growth is also expected to boost new PC sales.
"Recent economic forecasts anticipate even stronger growth throughout 2004 for the United States, Asia/Pacific and Japan, despite persistently high oil prices and the threat of increased geopolitical uncertainty," said Kiyomi Yamada, industry analyst for Gartner's client platforms research. "Stronger economic growth will almost certainly influence PC sales for the rest of 2004."
PC shipments for the second quarter of 2004 are projected to increase 14.3 percent from the second quarter of last year.
Additional information is available in the Gartner report 2Q04 PC Forecast Scenario Update, 2004-2005 The report provides preliminary projections for the worldwide PC industry both on a shipment and revenue basis. The report is available on Gartner's Web site.
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