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| GartnerGroup's Dataquest Says Worldwide Semiconductor Industry on Pace to Reach $244 Billion by 2003 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upcoming Semiconductor Conference to Examine the Future of the Industry | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| San Jose, Calif., May 24, 1999 — Driven by the use of personal computers, consumer electronics, and communications equipment, the worldwide semiconductor will experience double-digit growth through 2001, according to the quarterly report on the industry by Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner Group, Inc. (NYSE: IT). The market is projected to grow from $153 billion in 1999 to $244 billion by 2003 (see Table 1). Dataquest analysts said the DRAM market will continue to shape the outlook for the overall semiconductor industry. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| "A key assumption to the forecast is a DRAM shortage starting in late 2000, which will cause DRAM revenue to peak in 2001," said Ron Bohn, director of research for Dataquest's worldwide semiconductor group. "After that, the DRAM cycle of oversupply will repeat itself." | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Americas will continue to be the leading region of semiconductor revenue through 2003. Semiconductor revenue in the Americas will grow from $51 billion in 1999 to $83 billion by 2003. Asia/Pacific revenue will increase from $35 billion in 1999 to $58 billion in 2003. Semiconductor revenue in Europe will jump from $33 billion in 1999 to $52 billion in 2003, while revenue in Japan will reach $35 billion in 1999 and grow to $51 billion in 2003. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Table 1 Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Forecast Estimate (Billions of U.S. Dollars)
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| Dataquest analysts said the underlying megatrends driving these high-growth applications are the digital home, the global communications explosion, personal mobility, e-commerce, and the need for more bandwidth. Another megatrend impacting semiconductor suppliers and the high-growth markets is the industry move to system-level integration (SLI), or system-on-a-chip (SOC). This will reshape future customer/supplier business models, as well as provide the vehicle to low-cost systems. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The Dataquest Alert titled, "Worldwide Semiconductor Forecast: Market Still on Track for Double-Digit Revenue Growth in 1999," contains an eight-quarter forecast of the worldwide semiconductor industry, as well as a regional forecast through 2003. Every quarter Dataquest will update this forecast to provide timely assumptions on the changes Dataquest sees coming in this volatile industry. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| This report is produced by Dataquest's Semiconductors Worldwide program. This program combines the global industry view of memory, microcomponent, logic/ASIC, analog, discrete, and optical device segments. Additional information on this program is available on Dataquest's Web site http://www.dataquest.com/dq/static/offer/programs/semiwwds19981130.html. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dataquest's semiconductor analysts will examine some of the major sectors within the marketplace during Dataquest's Semiconductor Group Breakfast, May 26th in Santa Clara, Calif. Topic areas will include ASICs and SLI, intellectual property, DRAM, networking semiconductors, foundry, and packaging. For more information on the briefing, please contact Jenny Williams at 408-468-8263 or jenny.williams@gartner.com | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dataquest analysts will give a more detailed outlook for the semiconductor industry during the upcoming Dataquest Semiconductors '99 conference. The conference will be held November 1-3 in Palm Springs, California. This year's 25th annual conference will help bring the future of the semiconductor market into focus. Additional information on the conference is available at http://www.gartner.com/semicon/usa. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| To purchase the report or subscribe to this program, please call 800-419-DATA, or 408-468-8009. More information about Dataquest's programs, descriptions of recent research reports, and full text of press releases can be found on the Internet at http://www.dataquest.com. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GartnerGroup's Dataquest is the recognized leader in providing the high-technology and financial communities with market intelligence for the semiconductor, computer systems and peripherals, communications, document management, software, and services sectors of the global information technology industry. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| As the world's leading authority on IT, GartnerGroup provides clients with a wide range of products and services in the areas of IT advisory services, measurement, research, decision support, analysis, and consulting. Founded in 1979, with headquarters in Stamford, Conn., GartnerGroup is at the center of a global community serving Fortune 1000 clients from 80 locations worldwide. Additional information about the company is available on the Internet at www.gartner.com. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CONTACT: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Tom McCall +1-408-468-8312 tom.mccall@gartner.com |
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