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Gartner Dataquest Says Third Quarter PC Shipments Slowed as Industry Waits for Next Upgrade Cycle |
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Research Shows Signs of Replacement Sales to Begin in 2001 |
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San Jose, Calif., October 23, 2000 - Worldwide personal computer shipments surpassed 33.9 million units in the third quarter of 2000, an increase of 15.2 percent over the same period last year, according to preliminary statistics by Dataquest Inc., a unit of Gartner Group, Inc. (NYSE: IT and ITB). With PC saturation in key U.S. and European segments, many manufacturers are waiting for the next PC upgrade cycle.
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"The expectation is that the home market will see some signs of replacement sales in the fourth quarter of 2000, but the corporate upgrade cycle will not gain momentum until 2001," said Charles Smulders, principal analyst for Gartner Dataquest's Personal Computers Worldwide program. "The potential size of that upgrade expected in 2001 is significant. There is the potential for a 25 percent increase in professional PC replacements in 2001 in the United States compared with 2000, even without Windows 2000 as a driver. A major upgrade cycle in both the European professional and home markets is also expected in 2001."
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HP showed the largest increase in shipments among top-tier vendors, both worldwide and in the United States (see Table 1 and Table 2). HP had continued success in the U.S. retail space, taking advantage of the absence of IBM and Packard Bell.
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Table 1
Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 3Q00 (Thousands of Units
| Company |
3Q/00 Shipments |
3Q/00 Market Share (%) |
3Q/99 Shipments |
3Q/99 Market Share (%) |
Growth (%) |
| Compaq |
4,449 |
13.1 |
3,908 |
13.3 |
13.9 |
| Dell |
3,800 |
11.2 |
3,123 |
10.6 |
21.7 |
| Hewlett-Packard |
2,615 |
7.7 |
1,887 |
6.4 |
38.6 |
| IBM |
2,458 |
7.2 |
2,259 |
7.7 |
8.8 |
| NEC |
1,577 |
4.6 |
1,513 |
5.1 |
4.3 |
| Gateway |
1,432 |
4.2 |
1,258 |
4.3 |
13.8 |
| Others |
17,600 |
51.9 |
15,512 |
52.7 |
13.5 |
| Total Market |
33,931 |
100.0 |
29,460 |
100.0 |
15.2 |
Note: Table includes desk-based PCs, mobile PCs and PC servers.
Fujitsu and Fujitsu-Siemens market share, if combined in 3Q00, would
equal 5.0 percent. Source: Gartner Dataquest (October 2000)
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Despite the mid-teen growth in the worldwide PC market, Gartner Dataquest analysts said this increase in the market could be misleading. The higher shipment numbers for some primarily indirect vendors may point to potential fourth-quarter problems.
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"We suspect these relatively strong numbers in the third quarter reflect a buildup of channel inventory, and we do not believe the market can support the kind of growth these numbers would indicate," Mr. Smulders said. "The fourth quarter could show slower unit growth, as upgrade cycles are deferred into 2001, and no revenue growth as vendors jockey to keep supply lines clear."
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| In the U.S. PC market, five of the top six vendors
had growth rates above the industry average. Dell had a good growth
quarter by industry standards, but it was a poor one based on its
own standards. Compaq saw an increase in direct sales, and like many
of the other vendors, is working to consolidate its PC lines in order
to reduce costs and increase customer value.
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Table 2 Preliminary U.S. PC Vendor Unit Shipment
Estimates for 3Q00 (Thousands of Units)
| Company |
3Q/00 Shipments |
3Q/00 Market Share (%) |
3Q/99 Shipments |
3Q/99 Market Share (%) |
Growth (%) |
| Dell |
2,600 |
19.7 |
2,062 |
17.5 |
26.1 |
| Compaq |
2,050 |
15.5 |
1,798 |
15.2 |
14.0 |
| Hewlett-Packard |
1,445 |
10.9 |
990 |
8.4 |
46.0 |
| Gateway |
1,251 |
9.5 |
1,098 |
9.3 |
13.9 |
| IBM |
741 |
5.6 |
912 |
7.7 |
-18.8 |
| Apple |
577 |
4.4 |
461 |
3.9 |
25.2 |
| Others |
4,565 |
34.5 |
4,471 |
37.9 |
2.1 |
| Total Market |
13,230 |
100.0 |
11,791 |
100.0 |
12.2 |
Note: Table includes desk-based PCs, mobile PCs and
PC servers. Source: Gartner Dataquest (October 2000)
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"It's important to recognize that slow growth in the developed regions does not diminish the value of the PC market. We expect the PC shipments to exceed 40 million units on a worldwide basis in the fourth quarter alone," said Mr. Smulders. "However, vendors must build share and revenue in other markets and geographical areas if they are to continue to return financial results to stockholder expectations."
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These results are preliminary at this time. Final statistics will be available soon to clients of Gartner Dataquest's PC Quarterly Statistics Worldwide by Region program. This program offers a comprehensive and timely picture of the worldwide PC market, allowing product planning, distribution, marketing and sales organizations to keep abreast of key issues and their future implications around the globe. More information on this program is available on Gartner Dataquest's Web site at www.dataquest.com.
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| To subscribe to this program, please call 800-419-DATA, or 408-468-8009. More information about Gartner Dataquest's programs, descriptions of recent research reports and full text of press releases can be found on the Internet at www.dataquest.com. |
| Gartner Dataquest is the recognized leader in providing the high-technology and financial communities with market intelligence for the semiconductor, computer systems and peripherals, communications, document management, software, and services sectors of the global information technology industry.
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