Gartner Says Worldwide PC Shipments Were Slightly Below Expectations in Third Quarter of 2004
Analysts Attribute Slower Growth Rate to Weakness in the U.S. PC Market
STAMFORD, Conn., October 19, 2004 — Worldwide PC shipments in the third quarter of 2004 increased 9.7 percent from the same period last year, slightly below previous forecast expectations, according to Gartner, Inc.
Gartner analysts said global shipments were impacted by slower sales in the U.S. market. PC shipments in the U.S. grew 5 percent in the third quarter, however analysts had expected shipments to increase more than 8 percent in the quarter.
"U.S. home notebook shipments were strong during the quarter, but desktop demand was much weaker, which brought down back to school shipments overall," said Charles Smulders, vice president of Gartner's Computing Platforms Worldwide group.
On a vendor basis, Dell extended its unit share lead both worldwide and in the U.S. in the third quarter of 2004 (see Tables 1 and 2). Dell performed particularly well in Europe, with shipments increasing 36.7 percent compared to the same period last year.
Table 1
Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 3Q04 (Thousands of Units)
Company
3Q04 Shipments
3Q04 Market Share (%)
3Q03 Shipments
3Q03 Market Share (%)
3Q03-3Q04 Growth (%)
Dell
7,862
16.8
6,505
15.2
20.9
Hewlett-Packard
7,045
15.0
6,435
15.0
9.5
IBM
2,614
5.6
2,242
5.2
16.6
Fujitsu/Fujitsu Siemens
1,700
3.6
1,552
3.6
9.6
Toshiba
1,579
3.4
1,342
3.1
17.6
Others
26,119
55.7
24,690
57.7
5.8
Total
46,919
100.0
42,767
100.0
9.7
Note: Data includes desk-based PCs, mobile PCs and X86-32 servers. Gateway and eMachines are reported as one company, as are Fujitsu and Fujitsu Siemens.
Source: Gartner Dataquest (October 2004)
Hewlett-Packard's growth was in line with the industry average, allowing it to maintain its market share compared to a year ago. "Regionally HP is coming under pressure in the U.S. retail market as rivals compete more aggressively for shelf space," Mr. Smulders said.
In the United States, PC shipments totaled 16.2 million units in the third quarter of 2004, a 5 percent increase from the third quarter of 2003 (see Table 2). Gartner analysts said notebook sales were strong, but desktop demand was much weaker.
Table 2
Preliminary U.S. PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 3Q04 (Thousands of Units)
Company
3Q04 Shipments
3Q04 Market Share (%)
3Q03 Shipments
3Q03 Market Share (%)
3Q03-3Q04 Growth (%)
Dell
4,919
30.4
4,297
27.9
14.5
Hewlett-Packard
3,090
19.1
3,042
19.7
1.6
Gateway
832
5.1
941
6.1
-11.6
IBM
797
4.9
706
4.6
13.0
Toshiba
561
3.5
468
3.0
19.9
Others
6,006
37.1
5,976
38.7
0.5
Total
16,205
100.0
15,430
100.0
5.0
Note: Data includes desk-based PCs, mobile PCs and X86-32 servers. Gateway and eMachines are reported as one company.
Source: Gartner Dataquest (October 2004)
The Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region also performed slightly below expectations. PC shipments totaled 14.3 million units, up 12.6 percent compared to a year ago. Analysts had expected shipments to grow 14 percent. Within EMEA, growth in Western and Eastern Europe slowed down while the Middle East and Africa region grew strongly.
"The market is on a downward trend compared to the peak nearly a year ago as replacement cycles come to an end and with consumer demand beginning to waver," said Ranjit Atwal, analyst of Gartner?s Computer Platforms group in London. "Back to school sales of PCs fell below expectations and many retailers are expecting to continue promotions through at least the first part of October to clear product inventories."
Table 3
Preliminary EMEA PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 3Q04 (Thousands of Units)
Company
3Q04 Shipments
3Q04 Market Share (%)
3Q03 Shipments
3Q03 Market Share (%)
3Q03-3Q04
Growth (%)
Hewlett-Packard
2,374
16.6
2,051
16.1
>
15.8
Dell Computer
1,542
10.8
1,128
8.9
36.7
Acer
1,034
7.2
657
5.2
57.5
Fujitsu Siemens
983
6.9
822
6.5
19.7
IBM
711
5.0
607
4.8
17.2
Others
7,681
53.6
7,460
58.6
2.9
Total
14,326
100.0
12,725
100.0
12.6
Note: Data includes desk-based PCs, mobile PCs and X86-32 servers. Gateway and eMachines are reported as one company.
Source: Gartner Dataquest (October 2004)
On a vendor basis, Hewlett-Packard gained market share, but it under performed compared to its leading rivals. It faired better in distribution compared to the second quarter, however, it is still enduring dissatisfaction around its channel strategy. Dell and Fujitsu-Siemens outgrew the market and the combined share of the top 5 vendors continues to increase, heightening the prospect of market consolidation in the middle to lower tiers of the market.
In the Asia/Pacific region, India and Australia showed some of the strongest shipment increases with growth rates of 30 and 19 percent, respectively. Shipments in China grew 11 percent, however a major concern going forward is the impact of government control measures to prevent overheating of the Chinese economy.
PC shipments in Latin America grew 29 percent in the third quarter. The strong shipment increase is attributed to PC replacement demand, lower interest rates, flexible PC vendor purchasing programs, broadband deployment and better system specification/price point positioning.
These results are preliminary. Final statistics will be available soon to clients of Gartner's PC Quarterly Statistics Worldwide by Region program. This program offers a comprehensive and timely picture of the worldwide PC market, allowing product planning, distribution, marketing and sales organizations to keep abreast of key issues and their future implications around the globe. To subscribe to this program, please call 408-468-8000. Additional research can be found on Gartner's Client Platforms Focus Area on Gartner's Web site.
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