By 2030, Autonomous-Driving-Capable Vehicles Will Represent Approximately 25 Percent of the Passenger Vehicle Population in Use in Mature Markets
Gartner's Maverick Analysis Sparks New, Unconventional Insights
Self-driving and autonomous vehicles, in particular, are much closer to reality than most people and businesses realize, according to Gartner, Inc. Over the next six years, self-aware vehicles will emerge first that are increasingly also able to autonomously sense, interpret, decide, act and communicate with other automobiles, infrastructures, businesses, people and organizations. As this self-awareness matures into the next decade, vehicles will become progressively smarter and autonomous, leading to the most fundamental change in transportation, mobility and society.
"At the core of this change is not just the accumulation of hardware, software and data communication technologies," said Thilo Koslowski, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner. "Gartner's Maverick research finds that the real impact of self-driving vehicles is the disruption of our existing personal and societal beliefs and the reorganization of established business assumptions in many industries. At the same time, self-driving vehicles will enable radically new digital business opportunities, such as personal delivery services that utilize a consumer's driverless vehicle to transport packages between two businesses."
Gartner's Maverick analysis is designed to spark new, unconventional insights. Maverick analysis is unconstrained by Gartner's typical broad consensus-formation process to deliver breakthrough, innovative and disruptive ideas from the company's research incubator to help organizations get ahead of the mainstream and take advantage of trends and insights that could impact IT strategy and the wider organization.
"The benefits of self-driving vehicles for individuals and the automotive industry are significant, and range from accident avoidance, to optimized energy and traffic utilization, to improved emission compliance," said Mr. Koslowski. "It is critical to note that all of these benefits can be realized at meaningful levels even only with the realization of the first stage of sophistication for self-driving vehicles: automated vehicles. However, only autonomous and driverless vehicles are capable of achieving the fundamental disruption at the societal and business levels that will permanently impact our beliefs and replace existing business assumptions with new ones."
According to a June 2014 Gartner survey of over 6,000 consumers, nearly two-fifths of U.S. and German vehicle owners are interested in purchasing a fully or partially autonomous vehicle the next time they shop for a vehicle. Equally as many vehicles owners would even consider giving up traditional vehicle ownership for having on-demand access to getting an autonomous vehicle whenever they need one.
Autonomous and driverless vehicles still have many obstacles to overcome before they meet all consumer, industry and legal requirements, but despite such challenges, the societal benefits from autonomous vehicles could outweigh potential disadvantages and concerns. Furthermore, the potential of fundamental business disruptions from autonomous and driverless vehicles will motivate industry leaders and newcomers to expand research and development activities, and to dramatically advance the progress of the technologies over the next two decades.
"The evolution of the self-driving vehicle from automated to autonomous vehicles is already underway, and significant investments are being made by individual companies and the entire automotive industry to accelerate the pace of innovation and do actual prototyping on public roads," said Mr. Koslowski. "We predict that by 2016, three companies will have announced concrete plans for upcoming automobile launches that will offer autonomous vehicle technology."
By 2025, vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communication will be available in approximately 30 percent of passenger vehicles in use in mature markets, which will increase the reliability and accelerate the rollout of autonomous vehicles. By 2030, autonomous-driving-capable vehicles will represent approximately 25 percent of the passenger vehicle population in use in mature markets.
More detailed analysis is available in the report "Maverick* Research: Crashing Industries and Our Societal Beliefs — The Real Implications of the Autonomous Vehicle." The report is available on Gartner's website at http://www.gartner.com/document/2863817. This report is part of the Gartner Special Report "Maverick* Research: Drive Disruptive Innovation with Unconventional Wisdom." This Special Report explores high-impact future scenarios that help companies think differently to uncover opportunity and enable innovation. This collection of research is intentionally disruptive and edgy to help IT leaders get ahead of the mainstream and take advantage of trends and insights that could impact their IT strategy and their organization. The Special Report is available at http://www.gartner.com/explore/special-reports/overview/2863933.
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