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Gartner defines an emerging technology as one that is immature, yet promises to provide significant capabilities or that, despite maturity, has so far not achieved its projected levels of acceptance and penetration. For this Spotlight, we have looked at emerging technologies in many fields and selected those likely to have the most impact on IS planning and corporate productivity or competitiveness over the next 10 years.
The research focuses on the selection of the technologies rather than on their potential applications (although, for each technology described in some detail, examples of applications are provided). There is, needless to say, ambiguity between a technology per se and its applications. The distinction is blurred by the various viewpoints possible. For example, to a computer scientist, a carbon nanotube is a basic (and "emerging") technology, while to a physicist or chemist it is an application (and a thing of the past). Microsoft Windows appears as an application to a systems programmer, but a computer user perceives it as a base technology.
Core Technologies
In "Emerging Core Computing Technologies" (T-14-0299), we explore the likelihood that emerging core technologies (such as quantum computing, nanocomputers or massively parallel processing) may change the world of hardware or software over the next 10 years and cause a step change in the economics of computing. We did a check on Moore's Law and looked at software development in most advanced labs, but determined that no discontinuity is to be expected over the next 10 years.
Most experts share the notion that current base technologies will continue to dominate through the decade, with those emerging maturing but not taking the lead. This does not mean that change is decelerating! Moore's Law is alive and well and will continue to hold through at least 2011 (0.6 probability), causing the density of chips to double — at a fixed cost — every 18 to 24 months. This is the major driver for most information and communications technology (ICT) innovations. The world of software is expected to continue lagging hardware advances over the planning horizon.
By 2010, we expect network convergence to be nearly complete, with a single advanced IP network handling the majority of the world's communications needs. Legacy networks, such as public switched telephone networks (PSTNs), will still exist. The IP network, however, will interconnect these older environments. As illustrated in "Emerging Network Technologies for the Decade" (T-14-0296), this converged, broadband, intelligent network will extend well beyond voice and data, local and long distance, supporting an ever-widening array of services, and blurring distinctions among networking, computing and applications.
Driven by e-business requirements and facilitated by technological advances such as e-switching and next-generation satellites, the increasing externalization of networking (from intraenterprise to interenterprise) will give rise to an environment where applications, content and data reside in the network and are dynamically handled by network service providers in real time, without user intervention. By 2010, enterprises will rely more on networked computing services than their internal data center operations (0.6 probability).
Digitized Content
The advances in hardware and networking, plus of course the Internet, have made it possible to store and exchange enormous quantities of digitized content rapidly and inexpensively. This can have a formidable and potentially beneficial impact on business transactions and social activities, as well as on our personal lives. However, technologies for managing content will have to mature.
"Emerging Technologies for Managing Content" (T-14-0300) focuses on developments in:
Supranet
One of the most-intriguing and pervasive phenomena of the decade will be the Supranet: always-on connectivity, mobile users and physical objects (such as products, documents or bank notes) enrolled in the virtual world. The phenomenon is explored in two pieces in this Spotlight.
"A Brave New World: Emerging Technologies for Mobility" (T-14-0297) examines the key technologies that will enable mobility through 2011, including location sensing (location-based services are projected to be used by 90 percent of enterprises by 2010), telematics, wearable devices (by 2010, more than 75 percent of the U.S. and European Union population aged 15 to 50 will wear one or more such devices at least six hours a day, 0.6 probability), new portable sources of electric power and mini-disk storage.
In "Computers to Acquire Control of the Physical World" (T-14-0301), we explore the (hidden) interface developing between physical objects and the computer. Over the next 10 years, billions of physical objects — such as products, livestock, clothing, jewelry, office walls, house furniture and cars — will be tagged with uniquely identifiable programmable and networked sensors. The environment surrounding us will interact — via the Internet — with computer software residing on remote computers. And in most cases, we will not realize the interactions are occurring.
The power of computers lies in their ability to store, manipulate and transport information in a way that is highly complementary to the cognitive capabilities of humans. However, the computer's ability to communicate with people lags far behind its other capabilities, with the result that the major bottleneck in many applications is the link between the computer and the most-important multiprocessor in any task — the human brain. A survey of ongoing R&D efforts for promising emerging technologies is provided in "Emerging Technologies for Human-Computer Interaction" (T-14-0298). In this research, we also offer forecasts as to the diffusion of technologies such as speech recognition, natural language processing, retinal displays and augmented reality, electronic ink (plus a number of other output technologies) and biometrics.
Adoption Rate of Emerging Technologies
For many of the individual emerging technologies identified in this Spotlight, we have provided a timeline for when usability and/or mass adoption can be expected (see examples in Figure 1). Enterprises should consider these emerging technologies as likely to affect their profitability or competitiveness through 2011, and make exposure, education, experimentation and investment plans depending on our projections, as well as on the enterprise's business sector.
Source: Gartner Research
Features:
"Computers to Acquire Control of the Physical World" (T-14-0301) The developing hidden interface between physical objects and computers. By Paolo Magrassi, Angelo Panarella, Nigel Deighton and Geoff Johnson
"Emerging Network Technologies for the Decade" (T-14-0296) Changes in computing environment due to converged, broadband, intelligent networks. By Jay Pultz
"Emerging Core Computing Technologies" (T-14-0299) Effects of hardware and software on the economics of computing over the next 10 years, and an evaluation of Moore's Law. By Kevin Haley, Paolo Magrassi, Thomas Bittman, Tom Austin, Tim Enwall, Jackie Fenn, Jim Tully, Rich Garrett, Anthony Allan and Lindsay McRory
"Emerging Technologies for Managing Content" (T-14-0300) Dramatic impact of new content technologies on the enterprise and home. By Mark Gilbert, Charles Abrams, Alexander Linden, Rich Mogull, Lawrence Orans and Robert Wald
"A Brave New World: Emerging Technologies for Mobility" (T-14-0297) Key technologies that will enable mobility through 2011. By Phillip Redman, Jean-Claude Delcroix, Kathy Harris, Rich Mogull and John Monroe
"Emerging Technologies for Human-Computer Interaction" (T-14-0298) More than a half-dozen emerging technologies will transform the user interface experience. By Jackie Fenn and Nigel Deighton
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