Gartner Insights Abstract

Forecast Analysis: DRAM, Worldwide, 1Q24

Published: 02 May 2024

Summary

After demand recovers in 1H24 and excess customer inventory is consumed, DRAM market undersupply conditions will peak in 3Q24. This will result in DRAM revenue increasing by 67.4% in 2024 to reach $83.5 billion as pricing rebounds, encouraged by demand for AI and high-bandwidth memory.

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Overview

Forecast Assumptions
  • The DRAM market entered undersupply conditions from 4Q23 which will last until 3Q25, with shortages of 3.1% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025.

  • A server DRAM average selling price (ASP) increase will be front-loaded in the first half of 2024, with a 10% increase in 2Q24 and an overall increase of 28% through 4Q24, as demand for AI and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) remains strong.

  • Low-power DRAM (LPDRAM) pricing will increase by 36% between 1Q24 and 4Q24 due to higher demand for premium smartphones and an increasing undersupply in 2024.

Market Impacts
  • DRAM revenue will increase by 67.4% to $83.5 billion in

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Analysts:

Shrish Pant

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