Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: NAND Flash, Worldwide

Published: 31 July 2023


Market conditions continued to deteriorate for NAND vendors amid unsustainable pricing and profitability levels. Weak demand has fueled excess inventory, but current supply reductions will lead to undersupply and recovery with revenue growth of 76.3% and 34.9% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

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Forecast Assumptions
  • The NAND flash market will remain oversupplied through 4Q23, and then move into undersupply through all of 2024, 2025 and into 2026.

  • Pricing of all the major NAND flash end markets will bottom in 4Q23 before increasing 8.9% in 1Q24 as the market moves into an undersupply.

  • Bit growth for solid-state drives (SSDs) in 2023 will be historically low at 8.2% as unit shipments contract by nearly 2 million units, falling to 431 million.

Market Impacts
  • NAND flash revenue will decrease 38.8% to $35.4 billion in 2023 before recovering in 2024 with surging 76.3% to reach $62.5 billion.

  • Overall NAND flash average

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Joseph Unsworth

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