Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: Semiconductor Capital Spending and Manufacturing Equipment, Worldwide

Published: 26 July 2023

Summary

Capex will decrease by 22.5% in 2023 to reach $136.3 billion, as both logic and memory players stay conservative in spending due to macroeconomic headwinds and oversupply, respectively. As consumer demand picks up, capex will see 1.3% growth in 2024, before a stronger growth of 9.5% in 2025.

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Overview

Forecast Assumptions
  • Owing to the declining demand for PCs, smartphones and consumer electronics, semiconductor revenue will decline by 12.3% to reach $525.9 billion in 2023.

  • After two years of over 30% annual growth, foundry revenue is projected to decline by 5.6% in 2023 due to weak wafer demand in the near term.

  • DRAM market will see significant oversupply for most of 2023 and revenue will decline by 44.4% due to weak end equipment demand and high inventory levels.

  • With key NAND demand drivers — such as PCs, smartphones and data centers — witnessing lower demand in 2023, NAND revenue will decline by 38.8%

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