Gartner Research

Forecast Analysis: DRAM, Worldwide, 2Q23

Published: 26 July 2023


The DRAM market will be oversupplied for most of 2023 as negative bit production by DRAM vendors is not enough to counter weak end-equipment demand and inflated inventory. 2023 revenue will decline 44%, but a move to undersupply from 4Q23 will drive 2024 revenue growth of 98% as pricing rebounds.

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Forecast Assumptions
  • The DRAM market will remain oversupplied through 3Q23, and then move into undersupply from 4Q23 through all of 2024, 2025 and into 2026.

  • Pricing of all the major DRAM types will bottom in 3Q23 before surging 17.8% in 4Q23 as the market moves into an undersupply.

  • By 2027, 45% of AI semiconductors will use high-bandwidth memory (HBM), down from 75% in 2022.

Market Impacts
  • DRAM revenue will decrease 44.4% to $43.8 billion in 2023 before surging 98.5% to $86.9 billion in 2024.

  • Overall DRAM average selling prices (ASPs) will decrease 50.4% in 2023 to $1.59 for an 8Gb equivalent before rebounding 68.3%

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Shrish Pant

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