Published: 03 August 2023
Summary
Gartner forecasts 2023 semiconductor revenue will drop 12.3% to $525.9 billion, then jump up 20.4% to $633.0 billion in 2024, as demand rebounds from most application lines. Memory will decline 40.6% and lead the downturn cycle while nonmemory revenue will decline by 3.4% in 2023.
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Overview
Forecast Assumptions
After an oversupply for most of 2023, memory devices are expected to enter shortages throughout 2024, with prices increasing 40% after declining by nearly half in 2023.
With recovery in demand, the semiconductor inventory index is expected to decline sharply in 2H23 before stabilizing in 1H24.
By 2027, more than 17% of servers deployed in data centers will include workload accelerators, up from less than 7% in 2022.
Market Impacts
Memory revenue will lead the market rebound in 2024, with 82.2% growth and revenue reaching $154.9 billion.
The inventory index peaked in 2Q23 within the surplus zone. However, it is expected
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