Published: 07 February 2024
技术创新领导者必须将Gartner TAPESTRY分析框架中列出的七种力量纳入考虑。这些力量不仅将对企业的人员、原则和利润产生影响，同时也会鼓励企业机构加速创新，从而对Gartner未来实验室预测的影响力加以利用或减轻其影响。
技术：对于企业而言，衡量技术——特别是新兴技术对业务运营产生的影响具有挑战性，因此需要采用新的指标和方法来跟踪成果。
政治：在军事对抗领域使用攻击性人工智能（AI）有可能带来新的战争形式，而且要比之前的作战模式更快、更准确、更具有杀伤力。
经济：如今，数字企业机构倾向于更多地采用能够替代旧物理系统的无形资产，如软件和服务。
社会/文化：社交媒体成瘾可能会被归类为心理疾病，这表明社会对此的关注度日益提高，教育干预成为必要。研究人员发现，对产生问题的社交媒体使用进行治疗，可以有效改善抑郁症患者的心理健康状况。
信任/伦理：消费者对AI生成的内容持谨慎态度。当消费者被要求选择其认为与生成式人工智能（GenAI）最相关的词语时，排在第二位的是“威胁”。
监管/法律：通过明确界定AI权利，可以更好地了解人类权利和AI权利分界线，确保AI最终按人类预期的方式运行，从而减少道德风险和潜在的存在主义风险。
环境：在热负荷过高的地区，企业的风险会随着极端高温的出现日益增加。白天的气温高峰对室内外工作人员的健康都会产生威胁，从而降低员工生产力，同时增加能源成本、造成能源供应紧张。
技术：设置适当的基准，以衡量GenAI用例带来的生产力改善效果和/或增量收入。同时在适当的时候，评估和重新设计业务工作流。
政治：军事供应商应抵制军事AI应用和设计并在其中构建防护措施，以限制并防止非动能军事AI在售后被调整为动能军事AI。
经济：对有形资产进行布局，将其与无形资产关联起来，同时特别关注数字资产。根据运营流程对资产进行分组，以降低复杂性成本，并通过进入新市场来提高全球竞争力。
社交/文化：为员工和客户（在需要时）提供信息丰富的教育性项目，学习如何主动识别社交媒体成瘾的迹象和症状并加以应对，以及提供可用的治疗方案。
信任/伦理：评估消费者在哪些领域会更倾向于人工提供的客户服务、内容生成或产品开发。随着AI生成内容的使用越来越多，人工服务将在更大程度上影响购买决策和品牌忠诚度，特别是高价商品和服务，因为其消费者更在意个性化。
监管/法务：为员工和其他利益相关者建立沟通渠道，用于在短期内表达对AI权利的担忧或提供反馈。在中期，应建立伦理委员会和/或AI治理职能。
环境：评估企业的产品或服务、生产方法和流程是否适合夜间业务运营，因为气候变化可能会推动企业为适应极端高温而做出改变。
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Analysts:
Marty Resnick, Ran Xu, Zainab Ali, Daryl Plummer, Akshat Tyagi
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