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EGHAM, U.K., August 1, 2019

Gartner Says Worldwide Smartphone Sales Will Decline 2.5% in 2019

Japan, Western Europe and North America to Record Largest Declines

Worldwide sales of smartphones to end users will total 1.5 billion units in 2019, a 2.5% decline year over year, according to Gartner, Inc.

However, Gartner analysts expect smartphone sales to grow again in 2020, driven by broader availability of 5G models and the promotion of 5G service packages in various parts of the world by communications service providers (CSPs). Analysts also expect the first 5G Apple iPhone to launch in 2020, which should entice iPhone users to upgrade.

5G Smartphone Sales to Ramp Up in Second Half of 2020

“Lengthening smartphone replacement cycles and a ban on Huawei accessing technology from U.S.-based suppliers weakened demand for smartphones in the first half of 2019,” said Annette Zimmermann, research vice president at Gartner. “We expect demand to get even weaker in the second half as replacement of high-, low- and mid-end smartphones continues to slow, due to low value benefits.”

“Although leading mobile manufacturers have started positioning their first 5G smartphones (such as the LG V50 ThinQ, OPPO Reno 5G, Samsung Galaxy S10 5G and Xiaomi Mi MIX 3 5G), and CSPs have started to offer some aggressively priced 5G service packages, 5G smartphone sales are set to remain small in 2019. Sales will start to ramp up in the second half of 2020 as the coverage and availability of 5G hardware services improve,” said Ms. Zimmermann.

Gartner forecasts that sales of 5G smartphones will top 15 million units in 2019, which will represent less than 1% of total smartphone sales in that year.

Japan, Western Europe and North America Will Record the Largest Declines in 2019

Japan (-6.5%), Western Europe (-5.3%) and North America (-4.4%) are set to exhibit the worst declines in sales of smartphones in 2019 (see Table 1). “In mature markets, the high-end smartphone market is particularly oversupplied and commoditized, with higher average selling prices (ASPs) and no compelling new utility or experiences for users to upgrade to. Despite ASP increases on high-end smartphones slowing down recently, the vendors who primarily rely on replacement smartphone sales continue to face tough times,” said Roberta Cozza, senior research director at Gartner.

Table 1:

Worldwide Smartphone Sales to End Users by Region, Worldwide 2018-2020 (Thousands of Units)

Region

2018

2019

2020

Eastern Europe

47,054

45,043

43,911

Emerging Asia/Pacific

357,208

352,168

382,439

Eurasia

49,083

49,695

51,519

Greater China

423,411

411,095

424,501

Latin America

128,664

125,675

118,268

Mature Asia/Pacific

31,176

30,062

30,863

Middle East and North Africa

75,607

76,336

77,864

North America

174,219

166,510

164,853

Sub-Saharan Africa

88,753

90,104

91,917

Western Europe

147,179

139,421

142,924

Japan

33,914

31,722

31,794

Grand Total

1,556,269

1,517,830

1,560,853

Owing to rounding, figures for 2018 and 2019 do not add up precisely to the grand totals shown.

Source: Gartner (August 2019)

Gartner analysts expect total smartphone sales to decline in the second half of 2019, continuing the trend witnessed in the first half. “The ban on Huawei (even though currently partially lifted) has created negativity around the Huawei brand and is likely to open a few opportunities for other manufacturers in overseas markets such as Western Europe,” said Ms. Zimmermann. “Despite the U.S. administration’s directive that allows U.S. suppliers to work with Huawei again, the situation remains unclear. The latter part of the second quarter of 2019 was certainly challenging for Huawei in EMEA and Latin America. However, its leading position in its home market remained unchanged.”

Gartner clients can learn more in “Forecast: Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2017-2023, 2Q19 Update.”

About Gartner

Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT), is the world’s leading research and advisory company and a member of the S&P 500. We equip business leaders with indispensable insights, advice and tools to achieve their mission-critical priorities today and build the successful organizations of tomorrow.

Our unmatched combination of expert-led, practitioner-sourced and data-driven research steers clients toward the right decisions on the issues that matter most. We are a trusted advisor and objective resource for more than 15,000 organizations in more than 100 countries — across all major functions, in every industry and enterprise size.

To learn more about how we help decision makers fuel the future of business, visit gartner.com.

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