Gartner Forecasts AI Will Drive a Net Increase of 1.7 Million Jobs by 2030

• At Most, Job Losses Will Impact 1.8% of Global Workers
• Over 20% of Global Workers Will See Their Jobs Transformed

AI is expected to drive a net increase of 1.7 million jobs by 2030, according to Gartner, Inc., a business and technology insights company.

Gartner said AI will create more jobs than it eliminates, generating 10.6 million new jobs, while removing 8.9 million jobs worldwide by 2030.

Speaking at Gartner IT Symposium/Xpo in Barcelona, Helen Poitevin, Distinguished VP Analyst at Gartner said: “Organizations most advanced in AI execution view AI not as a replacement for labor, but as a catalyst to reinvent operations and rebalance workforce and technology capabilities to compete in changing markets. They ensure AI's economic value goes beyond replacing labor.”

In 2026, one of the most significant impacts on the job market was business executives’ decisions to defer the creation and hiring of 1.3 million positions, alongside 2.2 million jobs lost and 1.6 million jobs gained. By 2030, a total of 5 million people will have experienced delayed hiring as a result of business and IT executives postponing the creation of new positions. “Deferred jobs are not the same as lost jobs. They simply aren’t created,” said John Lovelock, Distinguished VP Analyst, Chief of Research at Gartner. (see Figure 1).” 

Job Losses to Impact Up to 1.8% of Workers Globally

By 2030, Gartner projects that between 0.4% and 1.8% of workers will experience job loss directly attributable to AI. Through 2030, just over 20% of workers (435.5 million employees worldwide) will have to adapt to the new shape of work in their jobs, changing what they do, how they do it, and where their responsibilities stop and end.

“AI job impacts are unevenly distributed across geographies, job functions and industries. The worst mistake that a business and IT executive can make is to apply lessons from one industry or role to another which can lead to poor errors in judgment and missed targets,” said Poitevin. “Each industry faces unique challenges and risks that executive leaders must understand and address.”

Gartner outlined how AI-related jobs are expected to evolve across three types of industries: asset-intensive, public sector and technology:

• Asset-intensive industries deal in physical products or deliver services within capital-intensive physical infrastructures and represent the largest percentage of jobs globally. By 2030, the asset-intensive industries will experience 6.4 million jobs created and 6 million jobs lost. AI-driven job losses are projected to affect 0.4% of the global workforce in this industry through 2030.
• Public sector: AI investments in the public sector are unlikely to be sufficient to mitigate future severe skills shortages driven by other factors. By 2030, the public sector will witness 0.4 million job gains and 0.9 million job losses. AI-driven job losses are projected to total 0.4% of the global public sector workforce through 2030.
• Technology The tech industry is heavily impacted by AI, with nearly 70% of the workforce having high AI exposure. By 2030, the technology sector will experience the creation of 1.9 million jobs and the loss of 0.4 million jobs. The AI job loss impact is projected to represent 1.8% of the global technology workforce through 2030.